Why the Polls Drive Us Crazy (and Shouldn't)
By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted September 20, 2008.
There was a lot of talk last week about John McCain's "momentum" -- about the Republican brand rebounding.
And a dark cloud of gloom descended over many of those hoping to bring an end to the Bush era. "We've seen this before," was a common sentiment. A reader recently sent me a story, written during the lead-up to the 2004 election, about Kerry's seemingly indomitable lead in the polls -- a lead similar to Barack Obama's 8-point (average) advantage in the horse race a few weeks ago.
Then, this week, the storm clouds parted and the sun shone down on progressive America as Obama seemingly regained his mojo. Now he has surged back into the lead!
This emotional roller coaster is bad for one's psychic health and entirely unwarranted. The bigger picture is this: For about 10 days during the past 10 months -- after Sarah Palin's introduction to the country but before Americans got a good look at her beliefs -- McCain inched ahead of Obama in the national head-to-heads. Now, the tide appears to be turning back in Obama's favor: As the electorate has gotten enough of a look at Palin to distrust her, her once-high approval numbers have taken a nosedive. And McCain continues to say brilliant things like the economy is fundamentally sound and he won't meet with the dastardly prime minister of Spain.
More to the point, the significance of those head-to-head polls -- the yardstick featured in so much political reporting -- is completely overblown.
Read the whole story here.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
WaPo on Palin
Palin Attuned More to Public Will, Less to Job's Details
By Amy Goldstein, Kimberly Kindy and Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 19, 2008; Page A04
It was three days before the legislature was to go home, and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was frustrated. The state Senate was thwarting a reduction she wanted in the fee for business licenses. So the governor's aides culled records at the state Department of Commerce for the e-mail addresses of nearly 23,000 Alaskan business owners.
Using the addresses, Palin sent a mass "special message" with her official portrait, the state seal and a backdrop of snow-rimmed mountains. "I urge you to contact your senator TODAY," she wrote, enclosing the phone number of every member of the state Senate.
Lawmakers and other critics were livid. The governor, they complained, had misused state records, violating people's privacy and flouting an ethics rule that forbids Alaska's state employees to use information to which they have access for personal or political benefit. Palin insisted she had done nothing wrong. And the legislature reduced the fee.
Read the whole story here.
By Amy Goldstein, Kimberly Kindy and Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 19, 2008; Page A04
It was three days before the legislature was to go home, and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was frustrated. The state Senate was thwarting a reduction she wanted in the fee for business licenses. So the governor's aides culled records at the state Department of Commerce for the e-mail addresses of nearly 23,000 Alaskan business owners.
Using the addresses, Palin sent a mass "special message" with her official portrait, the state seal and a backdrop of snow-rimmed mountains. "I urge you to contact your senator TODAY," she wrote, enclosing the phone number of every member of the state Senate.
Lawmakers and other critics were livid. The governor, they complained, had misused state records, violating people's privacy and flouting an ethics rule that forbids Alaska's state employees to use information to which they have access for personal or political benefit. Palin insisted she had done nothing wrong. And the legislature reduced the fee.
Read the whole story here.
Are Conservatives Turning on McCain-Palin?
David Brooks writes in the New York Times that Sarah Palin is unqualified:
In the current Weekly Standard, Steven Hayward argues that the nation's founders wanted uncertified citizens to hold the highest offices in the land. They did not believe in a separate class of professional executives. They wanted rough and rooted people like Palin.
I would have more sympathy for this view if I hadn't just lived through the last eight years. For if the Bush administration was anything, it was the anti-establishment attitude put into executive practice.
I would have more sympathy for this view if I hadn't just lived through the last eight years. For if the Bush administration was anything, it was the anti-establishment attitude put into executive practice.
And the problem with this attitude is that, especially in his first term, it made Bush inept at governance. It turns out that governance, the creation and execution of policy, is hard. It requires acquired skills. Most of all, it requires prudence.
...
Sarah Palin has many virtues. If you wanted someone to destroy a corrupt establishment, she'd be your woman. But the constructive act of governance is another matter. She has not been engaged in national issues, does not have a repertoire of historic patterns and, like President Bush, she seems to compensate for her lack of experience with brashness and excessive decisiveness.
...
Sarah Palin has many virtues. If you wanted someone to destroy a corrupt establishment, she'd be your woman. But the constructive act of governance is another matter. She has not been engaged in national issues, does not have a repertoire of historic patterns and, like President Bush, she seems to compensate for her lack of experience with brashness and excessive decisiveness.
McCain Tones Down Bush Criticism
McCain Camp Removed Bush Criticism From Wall Street Statement
In private late Tuesday evening, the McCain campaign circulated a draft statement on the Wall Street crisis that attacked the Bush administration for a slow and "inconsistent" response, and charged that executives at several financial firms had made "misleading and false" statements.
But the criticism never appeared. After being circulated not only among McCain aides but also major campaign donors who have worked in the investment industry, the language was softened.
The official McCain statement released Wednesday morning made no mention of the Bush administration, instead accusing management and speculators of "creat[ing] this mess."
The earlier draft, obtained by the Huffington Post, was circulated among top advisers such as Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Matt McDonald, as well as some major donors, including Greg Wendt of the Capital Group. It expressed "concern[s] that the Administration has been inconsistent with the way they have dealt with each crisis. Taxpayer money was used for Bear Stearns, it was not used for Lehman Brothers and now it is used again for AIG. The American people need to know the thinking and the standards behind using taxpayer's money to support these private sector institutions."
Read the whole story here.
In private late Tuesday evening, the McCain campaign circulated a draft statement on the Wall Street crisis that attacked the Bush administration for a slow and "inconsistent" response, and charged that executives at several financial firms had made "misleading and false" statements.
But the criticism never appeared. After being circulated not only among McCain aides but also major campaign donors who have worked in the investment industry, the language was softened.
The official McCain statement released Wednesday morning made no mention of the Bush administration, instead accusing management and speculators of "creat[ing] this mess."
The earlier draft, obtained by the Huffington Post, was circulated among top advisers such as Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Matt McDonald, as well as some major donors, including Greg Wendt of the Capital Group. It expressed "concern[s] that the Administration has been inconsistent with the way they have dealt with each crisis. Taxpayer money was used for Bear Stearns, it was not used for Lehman Brothers and now it is used again for AIG. The American people need to know the thinking and the standards behind using taxpayer's money to support these private sector institutions."
Read the whole story here.
Palin Hacked!
AP Refuses To Comply With Secret Service Request On Sarah Palin's Hacked E-Mails
WASHINGTON -- Hackers broke into the Yahoo! e-mail account that Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin used for official business as Alaska's governor, revealing as evidence a few inconsequential personal messages she has received since John McCain selected her as his running mate.
"This is a shocking invasion of the governor's privacy and a violation of law. The matter has been turned over to the appropriate authorities and we hope that anyone in possession of these e-mails will destroy them," the McCain campaign said in a statement.
The Secret Service contacted The Associated Press on Wednesday and asked for copies of the leaked e-mails, which circulated widely on the Internet. The AP did not comply.
Read the whole story here.
WASHINGTON -- Hackers broke into the Yahoo! e-mail account that Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin used for official business as Alaska's governor, revealing as evidence a few inconsequential personal messages she has received since John McCain selected her as his running mate.
"This is a shocking invasion of the governor's privacy and a violation of law. The matter has been turned over to the appropriate authorities and we hope that anyone in possession of these e-mails will destroy them," the McCain campaign said in a statement.
The Secret Service contacted The Associated Press on Wednesday and asked for copies of the leaked e-mails, which circulated widely on the Internet. The AP did not comply.
Read the whole story here.
The Truth Be Damned
"...increasing numbers of otherwise sober observers, even such august institutions as the New York Times editorial board, are calling John McCain a liar."
John McCain and the Lying Game
By Joe Klein Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2008
Politics has always been lousy with blather and chicanery. But there are rules and traditions too. In the early weeks of the general-election campaign, a consensus has grown in the political community — a consensus that ranges from practitioners like Karl Rove to commentators like, well, me — that John McCain has allowed his campaign to slip the normal bounds of political propriety. The situation has gotten so intense that we in the media have slipped our normal rules as well. Usually when a candidate tells something less than the truth, we mince words. We use euphemisms like mendacity and inaccuracy ... or, as the Associated Press put it, "McCain's claims skirt facts." But increasing numbers of otherwise sober observers, even such august institutions as the New York Times editorial board, are calling John McCain a liar. You might well ask, What has McCain done to deserve this? What unwritten rules did he break? Are his transgressions of degree or of kind?
Read the whole story here.
John McCain and the Lying Game
By Joe Klein Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2008
Politics has always been lousy with blather and chicanery. But there are rules and traditions too. In the early weeks of the general-election campaign, a consensus has grown in the political community — a consensus that ranges from practitioners like Karl Rove to commentators like, well, me — that John McCain has allowed his campaign to slip the normal bounds of political propriety. The situation has gotten so intense that we in the media have slipped our normal rules as well. Usually when a candidate tells something less than the truth, we mince words. We use euphemisms like mendacity and inaccuracy ... or, as the Associated Press put it, "McCain's claims skirt facts." But increasing numbers of otherwise sober observers, even such august institutions as the New York Times editorial board, are calling John McCain a liar. You might well ask, What has McCain done to deserve this? What unwritten rules did he break? Are his transgressions of degree or of kind?
Read the whole story here.
Obama's Gaining
(CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead over Sen. John McCain, according to CNN's latest "poll of polls."
The senator from Illinois is ahead of McCain in national polls by 3 percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent. Obama was up by 2 points in the poll of polls released earlier Thursday.
McCain led in national polls last week, but by the weekend, the candidates were tied. Obama recaptured the lead for the first time in 10 days Wednesday.
The latest poll of polls consists of four surveys: CBS/The New York Times (September 12-16), Gallup (September 15-17), Diageo/Hotline (September 14-16) and American Research Group (September 13-15). It does not have a sampling error.
Read the whole story here.
The senator from Illinois is ahead of McCain in national polls by 3 percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent. Obama was up by 2 points in the poll of polls released earlier Thursday.
McCain led in national polls last week, but by the weekend, the candidates were tied. Obama recaptured the lead for the first time in 10 days Wednesday.
The latest poll of polls consists of four surveys: CBS/The New York Times (September 12-16), Gallup (September 15-17), Diageo/Hotline (September 14-16) and American Research Group (September 13-15). It does not have a sampling error.
Read the whole story here.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Not Again?!
Cronyism, secrecy, personal vendettas against critics; yeah, that's JUST what we need as VP.
Once Elected, Palin Hired Friends and Lashed Foes
This article is by Jo Becker, Peter S. Goodman and Michael Powell.
WASILLA, Alaska — Gov. Sarah Palin lives by the maxim that all politics is local, not to mention personal.
So when there was a vacancy at the top of the State Division of Agriculture, she appointed a high school classmate, Franci Havemeister, to the $95,000-a-year directorship. A former real estate agent, Ms. Havemeister cited her childhood love of cows as a qualification for running the roughly $2 million agency.
Ms. Havemeister was one of at least five schoolmates Ms. Palin hired, often at salaries far exceeding their private sector wages.
When Ms. Palin had to cut her first state budget, she avoided the legion of frustrated legislators and mayors. Instead, she huddled with her budget director and her husband, Todd, an oil field worker who is not a state employee, and vetoed millions of dollars of legislative projects.
Read the whole story here.
Once Elected, Palin Hired Friends and Lashed Foes
This article is by Jo Becker, Peter S. Goodman and Michael Powell.
WASILLA, Alaska — Gov. Sarah Palin lives by the maxim that all politics is local, not to mention personal.
So when there was a vacancy at the top of the State Division of Agriculture, she appointed a high school classmate, Franci Havemeister, to the $95,000-a-year directorship. A former real estate agent, Ms. Havemeister cited her childhood love of cows as a qualification for running the roughly $2 million agency.
Ms. Havemeister was one of at least five schoolmates Ms. Palin hired, often at salaries far exceeding their private sector wages.
When Ms. Palin had to cut her first state budget, she avoided the legion of frustrated legislators and mayors. Instead, she huddled with her budget director and her husband, Todd, an oil field worker who is not a state employee, and vetoed millions of dollars of legislative projects.
Read the whole story here.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
The Palin Interview
Were this a JOB interview, she'd never get to the next step. Michael Seitzman echoes my sentiments.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-seitzman/sarah-palin-naked_b_125861.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-seitzman/sarah-palin-naked_b_125861.html
Thursday, September 11, 2008
A Fact Free Ad
Here on the Internets, there are a lot of rumors, charges, slanders, accusations, calumnies and lies circulating about this intriguing woman named Sarah Palin, who sources tell Stumper has been asked to join John McCain's presidential ticket in the No. 2 slot. I mean, who knew?
Some of these claims have been substantiated. It's true that Palin raised the sales tax as mayor of Wasilla (mostly to pay for a new hockey rink). It's true that she sought and obtained earmarks (about $27 million between 2000 and 2003 as mayor and more than $200 million last year as governor). And it's true that she worked with Sen. Ted Stevens and was for the "Bridge to Nowhere" before she was against it.
That said, much of the information cycling through our beloved series of tubes is patently false. Palin never belonged to the secessionist Alaska Independence Party (that would be her husband, Todd). She never supported Pat Buchanan for president. She never mandated the teaching of creationism in public schools (even if she didn't oppose it). She never banned any books from the Wasilla library (that list you received by e-mail--it's a hoax). She never slashed special-needs funding. She certainly never covered up her daughter Bristol's pregnancy by pretending the baby was hers. And those are among the milder smears.
Given all the lies, I can understand why the McCain campaign has just launched what they're calling the "Palin Truth Squad." It's kind of like when Barack Obama--who's also been besieged by false internet rumors--unveiled his "Fight the Smears" Web site earlier this summer. A campaign has the right to correct the record.
But here's what I don't understand: if the purpose of your truth squad is to spread the truth about Palin, why kick off your campaign with an ad that's full of falsehoods?
Read the rest here.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
"Community Organizer" Is Not A Bad Word
I'll be the first to admit that until recently, I had no idea what a "community organizer" was. I knew enough not to disparage it in the smug, arrogant way that Sarah Palin and others did at the Republican Convention, but if you asked me what a community organizer's responsibilities and job were, I wouldn't have been able to tell you. I now know more, and my respect for these people is enormous. If you don't know what a community organizer is, thank you lucky stars because it means you've never needed one. A community organizer helps underserved communities get the help and relief they need to live their lives. It might be job training or better bus routes or property repair or trash pick up.
Peter Dreier has an excellent piece about Karen Bass, a former community organizer who is now the Speaker of the California Assembly.
Peter Dreier has an excellent piece about Karen Bass, a former community organizer who is now the Speaker of the California Assembly.
Obama And The Economy: Score One For Obama!
Obama has the advantage on the economy. The Obama message is simple: cut taxes on 95% of us, while McCain sounds like Bush.
From Gerald Seib at the Wall Street Journal
From Gerald Seib at the Wall Street Journal
Could The Polls Be Wrong
This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology.
In a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?
Read the whole story here.
In a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?
Read the whole story here.
McCain Sex Ed Ad: "Perverse"
John McCain is out with a response ad to Barack Obama's attacks today on his education policy, accusing the Democratic nominee of not accomplishing a single education-related goal other than to promote "comprehensive sex education" to kindergartners. Seriously, it's come to this.
In essence, Obama supported "age appropriate" sex-education for children as a means of teaching them what was proper or inproper touching, as well as to protect them against pedophiles, his campaign has said. Used in the context of the McCain campaign ad, however, Obama's stance becomes another one of those cultural issues that seems designed to alienate the Illinois Democrat from more socially moderate voters.
And very quickly, the Obama campaign came out with a hard hitting response, pointing to a series of education accomplishments made by Obama, and calling McCain "perverse" for the latest attack.
"It is shameful and downright perverse for the McCain campaign to use a bill that was written to protect young children from sexual predators as a recycled and discredited political attack against a father of two young girls - a position that his friend Mitt Romney also holds. Last week, John McCain told Time magazine he couldn't define what honor was. Now we know why," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
In essence, Obama supported "age appropriate" sex-education for children as a means of teaching them what was proper or inproper touching, as well as to protect them against pedophiles, his campaign has said. Used in the context of the McCain campaign ad, however, Obama's stance becomes another one of those cultural issues that seems designed to alienate the Illinois Democrat from more socially moderate voters.
And very quickly, the Obama campaign came out with a hard hitting response, pointing to a series of education accomplishments made by Obama, and calling McCain "perverse" for the latest attack.
"It is shameful and downright perverse for the McCain campaign to use a bill that was written to protect young children from sexual predators as a recycled and discredited political attack against a father of two young girls - a position that his friend Mitt Romney also holds. Last week, John McCain told Time magazine he couldn't define what honor was. Now we know why," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
If You Tell A Lie Long Enough...
Sarah Palin's stump speeches have largely stuck to the same script (what the AP describes as "a greatest hits of her convention speech). However, one line that constantly shows up is that Palin said "thanks, but no thanks, to that 'bridge to nowhere.'" Palin's claim of opposing the 'bridge to nowhere' has proven to be a stretch, yet she keeps repeating the same line. Watch Palin use this exact line in seven different stump speeches since the end of the Republican Convention.
Questions for Sarah Palin From The Anchorage Daily News
There's no polite way to say it: Sarah Palin has been hiding out from hard questions. It took 10 days from when John McCain announced his pick until the McCain campaign agreed to schedule Palin an unscripted interview with a serious journalist.
ABC landed the big "get" with Palin. She'll talk to Charlie Gibson of "Good Morning America" later this week.
Read the whole story here.
ABC landed the big "get" with Palin. She'll talk to Charlie Gibson of "Good Morning America" later this week.
Read the whole story here.
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Temper, Temper
McClatchy Newspapers is reporting a story on John McCain's legendary temper, including an incident in which the former POW "ALLEGEDLY" pushed a woman in a wheelchair.
Nice.
Nice.
Fight, Barack, Fight!!
I watched parts of Sen. Obama's interviews with Keith Olbermann and George Stephanopolous and found myself thinking, "when is this guy gonna fight?" Obama is cerebral, and that's great. The problem is, he thinks EVERYBODY is cerebral. And we're not. People respond emotionally, they act emotionally. They follow their hearts, not always their heads. How else could you explain McCain's momentum after announcing Sarah Palin as his running mate (besides pure unadulterated racism)?
Barack Obama has to get fired up and come out swinging. No more talk of "change." We get it. Tell us HOW you're going to fix things. Talk about gas (don't say energy), the economy, and healthcare. Talk about it all day and all night. Let Joe and your surrogates go after McCain and Palin's lies. You tell the American people in no uncertain terms why you should be President and, more importantly, what you're going to do to make things better. Otherwise, you lose.
Here are three great opinion pieces from today's Washington Post, from Richard Cohen, E.J. Dionne, Jr., and Eugene Robinson.
Barack Obama has to get fired up and come out swinging. No more talk of "change." We get it. Tell us HOW you're going to fix things. Talk about gas (don't say energy), the economy, and healthcare. Talk about it all day and all night. Let Joe and your surrogates go after McCain and Palin's lies. You tell the American people in no uncertain terms why you should be President and, more importantly, what you're going to do to make things better. Otherwise, you lose.
Here are three great opinion pieces from today's Washington Post, from Richard Cohen, E.J. Dionne, Jr., and Eugene Robinson.
More Questionable Palin Firings
The hits just keep on comin' for Caribou Barbie! Seems Gov. Palin fired an old classmate and legislative director for having an affair. Weeks after praising him at a news conference by telling him, "Whatever you did, you did it right," Palin fired him for "poor job performance."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122092043531812813.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122092043531812813.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox
Palin Took Per Diem To Stay At Home
"We cover the expenses of anyone who's conducting state business. I can't imagine kids could be doing that." -Kim Garnero, Alaska State Finance Director
"It was quite the little scandal. I gave a direction to all my commissioners if they were ever in their house, whether it was Juneau or elsewhere, they were not to get a per diem because, clearly, it is and it looks like a scam -- you pay yourself to live at home." - Tony Knowles, Alaska Governor, 1994-2000
"It was quite the little scandal. I gave a direction to all my commissioners if they were ever in their house, whether it was Juneau or elsewhere, they were not to get a per diem because, clearly, it is and it looks like a scam -- you pay yourself to live at home." - Tony Knowles, Alaska Governor, 1994-2000
The Time Is Now
It's been over a year since my last post on this blog. I am reactivating it for the sole purpose of working to elect Barack Obama and Joe Biden in November.
Our country stands at a crossroads in our history. The past 8 years of incompetence and cronyism has been an utter failure, almost to the point of being criminal (and perhaps it SHOULD be criminal). Our economy is in the tank, unemployment is rising, we are saddled with a tremendous energy crisis, and our moral and political standing in the world is at its lowest in my lifetime. The need for change could not be more evident. The party in power is a disaster but polls show the Republican ticket on the rise. None of it makes sense to me. When you're in a hole, stop digging!
I want desperately to see a new administration and a new party in the White House. This blog will be dedicated to putting Obama/Biden there and to tell THE TRUTH about John McCain and Sarah Palin. It is partisan, it is biased, and it's mine. You're free to comment and perhaps discussion and debate will ensue, but make no mistake: the Republican party must NOT be reelected in November.
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